US DOLLAR INDEX – Sideways trade looks set to continue after the greenback failed to overcome resistance at 80.07,the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the 11/4-11/30 upswing, dropping back to support at the 38.2% level (79.22). The larger trajectory continues to appear bullish, a bias established after prices broke higher out of a falling channel set from early June, but further near-term losses can’t be ruled out. A break below near-term support exposes the 50% Fib at 78.54.
MSCI WORLD STOCK INDEX – Prices are re-testing November’s swing high at 1269.14, with negative divergence on daily relative strength studies hinting that a double top may be in the making. Confirmation of a medium term reversal requires a daily close below 1239.20, initially exposing the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 8/25-11/5 upswing at 1190.80 once again.
CRUDE OIL –Prices have corrected higher to retest support-turned resistance at a rising trend line set from late October having broken below it yesterday. Broadly speaking, the bias remains bearish, with a resumption of the down move initially targeting the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the 8/25-12/7 rally at $86.04.
GOLD – Prices have bounced higher from support at a rising trend line set from mid-November to test resistance at $1407.28, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the 11/16-12/7 rally. A break above this juncture exposes the record high at $1431.25. Near-term support lines up at $1392.46, the 38.2% Fib level.
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