Australian Speculative Long Positions Nearing Extreme

Latest CFTC Release dated December 28, 2010:

Week (Data for Tuesdays)	13 Week Index (Current)	13 Week Index (Previous)
US Dollar	25	42
Euro	0	8
British Pound	0	8
Australian Dollar	83	75
NZ Dollar	8	0
Japanese Yen	42	0
Canadian Dollar	67	33
Swiss Franc	83	42

The COT Index is the percentile of the difference between net speculative positioning and net commercial positioning measured over a specific number of weeks (13). A reading close to 0 is bearish if the currency in question has reversed from a uptrend and is bullish if the currency has been declining for a significant amount of time. A reading close to 100 is bullish if the currency in question has reversed from a downtrend and is bearish if the currency has been rallying for a significant amount of time. On the charts below, blue painted bars indicate that non-commercial (speculative) traders are long and commercials are short. Red painted bars indicate that non-commercial (speculative) traders are short and commercials are long. Non commercials are on the correct side of the trend until the turn.

Readings of 95 and higher as well as 5 and lower are in boldfaced red type to indicate potential market extremes. For example, an increasing index is bullish until the index is extreme (near 100), at which time the risk of a reversal or pause in the trend increases.